Forecasting the Electric Energy Supply in Duhok Province using Proposed Methods Based on Wavelet Analysis and Sarima Methods

Abstract

Many applications have been done in the field of using wavelet analysis for time series analysis. In this study, we used the quarterly data of Electric Energy Supply in Duhok Province-Iraq in Megawatt which represents a sample size (46) observations during the period 2004 and 2015.we aim to describe how wavelet de-noising can be used in time series forecasting and improve the forecasting quality through presenting some proposed methods based on wavelet analysis and SARIMA method and applying on real data and make comparison between methods depending on some statistical criteria.Results from the analysis showed the superiority of the three proposed methods and showed that we can get more information from a series when using Wavelet-SARIMA method and this leads to enhance the classical SARIMA model in forecasting. Furthermore, after many empirical experiments with many wavelet families, it has been found that Daubechies, Coiflets, Discrete Meyer(dmey) and Symlet wavelets are very suitable when denoising the data and out of these four wavelet families, the Daubechies and Discrete Meyer performed better.